Too Much Going Against The Pack In This One

Seriously, you look at this team on paper, and you can see why there are so many folks around the Blogosphere calling the lemmings back from the cliff. There are a lot of statistical and subjective positives that the Packers have going for them right now.

Aaron Rodgers has a 100+ efficiency rating and is on pace to throw 32 TDs and only 10 INTs.

Ryan Grant is on pace for another 1,200+ yard season.

The Packers have had some feel-good stories the past few weeks: Donald Driver breaking the team receptions record, while Ahman Green set the team career rushing record.

Charles Woodson has five interceptions, and some veteran players have come out of their shell the past few weeks: Ryan Pickett, Nick Barnett, even AJ Hawk.

The defensive line has been one of the most stout against the run, ranking 8th on the FootballOutsiders rankings. In fact, other than Cedric Benson, no opposing running back has really gashed the Packers, including Adrian Peterson twice.

In fact, if you don't believe me that the Packers have the 8th-ranked offense and the 3rd-ranked defense, just ask Mike McCarthy. He'll be glad to tell you.

But anyone that knows me also knows that the first thing I will tell you is that a bunch of statistics and a dollar will get you pretty much what that guy in the McDonald's commercial got for a dollar, too. You know, the little hula girl, the empty hanger...

The difficult truth in the pace of so many positives about this team is that the negatives are starting to outweigh those positives.

Again, the Packers are leading the league in penalties. Simply no excuse for not cleaning up that house.

For what Rodgers offers the team in protecting the ball, he isn't keeping his body protected. He is now on pace for 74 sacks, just two off the NFL record, and his discipline is beginning to fade.

The offensive line struggles to pass protect, and they usually struggle to open holes for the run. When they do open holes, the Packers stop running the ball anyway. They rank 32nd in pass protection, according to FootballOutsiders.

The Packers' special teams rank 32nd out of 32 teams.

Second-to-most-importantly, the Packers' injuries are starting to pile up, as they always tend to do in a bad season. Those little twinges hurt a lot more when you are getting beatas opposed to when you are winning. Injuries were taking their toll on depth players earlier in the season, but now we are seeing some starters having to battle through injuries, including Aaron Kampman and Brady Poppinga. Jason Spitz is already on the IR, and Rodgers looks as though he's running on borrowed time right now, as his two sprained feet are bound to endure more punishment this week.

And finally, most importantly, this team is looking like they don't know how to win anymore. With a 3-10 record in quality wins since the start of the 2008 season, the Packers gave the game away to a previously winless team last week. The Packers emotional state appears to be going into survival mode.

The story about a part-time worker at Lambeau Field being fired for allegedly criticizing Mike McCarthy is a cautionary tale on how those at 1265 are starting to circle the wagons. Whether McCarthy is involved or not is irrelevant. McCarthy is being protected right now. I wonder if he is going to have his own private locker room soon, too.

So, what we have is not a terrible team. If you want to see a terrible team, look at the Lions or the Browns, teams that can't seem to function in any aspect of the game. Teams that have no chance as soon as they hit the field. Teams that are mathematically eliminated before their bye week.

No, the Packers are not terrible. They are frustrating. They have every sign of being the team that we saw in the preseason, and every now and then they start hitting all cylinders and actually play like it. But, eventually, someone breaks down. Maybe it's the special teams. Maybe it's the offensive line. Maybe it's the defense giving up a big play.

But, regardless of whoever it is, it drags the rest of the team down with them. Nobody appears ready to step up and put this team on their shoulders and inspire them to all play their best. It's a disjointed concert out there, with players and coaches not appearing to always be on the same page, yet connected to each other at the most critical times. Momentum is suddenly crucial and fleeting...just one penalty or punt return seems to turn the entire tide of a game.

When the Packers take on the Cowboys, I actually give them a chance in the game, if only for one reason: they shouldn't get blown out. They have enough going for them to keep the game close, and when you look at it, their four losses have only been by an average of nine points.

The Packers have a lot of key players at positions to make an impact: Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, Barnett, Harris, Woodson, Pickett...but it just isn't enough when your line can't pass protect, your special teams gaffe at least three times a game, and you can't get off the field on a defensive third down late in a game. Penalties, injuries, sacks, even playcalling...all just seem to be holding this team back.

There's some great undercurrents in this story tomorrow: TJ Lang moving across the OL, Brad Jones at linebacker, Ahman Green getting more established in the offense, the return of Jordy Nelson. Those may have to be enough to entertain us, however, as I don't know if the larger game will.

The Packers will have a tough time in this game. They are too good to get blown out, but not good enough to establish a solid attack against a quality opponent. It may be time to lower our expectations, and consider getting out of this game with Aaron Rodgers in one piece as a moral victory.

Let's stop thinking about this week as the pivotal game of the season, get it over with, and look forward to facing the 4-5 49ers next week, a game that we, unfortunately, have to look at now as being against an opponent on our own level.

Special Teams Roster Gambit Backfires

Someone posed a question on one of the forums this past week in regards to former Packer safety Anthony Smith--"Why did the Packers cut him to begin with?"

A good question, one that deserves a good answer. And, if we're lucky, it's one that might open a whole new can of worms in the process. At the time of final cutdowns, most of us were convinced (whether we agreed with the cut or not) that Smith was let go because of the concerns with his freelancing style in coverage and his potential as a locker room malcontent.

Neither argument held a lot of water, but for the most part, we accepted it. It's not often we cut a backup simply because of locker room concerns...how often does a backup actually impact the leadership of a team? If he is a good player and actually causes problems down the road, you jettison him. Think Chris Akins. No big salary or cap acceleration. Just send him on his way and be done with it.

But the rationale completely lost its punch when Ted Thompson placed a waiver claim on Smith a couple weeks ago, only to lose out to the Jaguars. Loosely translated, it not only communicates that the Packers want him back (and probably realize the mistake in cutting him to begin with), but that any "locker room cancer" issues were marginal, if not non-existent.

Which brings us to the question: why was Smith cut?

I'll tell you: because he wasn't going to be a strong special teams contributor, and the Packers decided to tip the balance of their roster towards special teams. In the end, it has bitten them in the butt more than once.

Last year, the Packers fielded one of the worst special teams units in team history. Make no mistake, there is a reason why Mike Stock's firing was announced one day before the rest of the coaching massacre. The special teams were miserable last year.

But, how do you change a special teams culture? If you look at the Kitchen Analogy, you have three areas you can try and affect: the coach (the cook), the scheme (the recipe), and the players (the ingredients).

Now, scheme changes will make far more of a difference on the offense or defense. When you think about it, there's really not a lot of schematic changes you can make on special teams. Oh, sure, you can switch up some assignments on the coverage or blocking teams, but it really comes down to the players executing those assignments, regardless of scheme. And how many ways can you line up to punt?

So, we will dismiss schemes. The recipe remains relatively unchanged.

The next decision that was made was eyebrow-raising then, and even more questionable in retrospect. Instead of bringing a coach from outside (like McCarthy bringing in Dom Capers), Shawn Slocum was promoted from assistant special teams coach to head special teams coach. Exactly what changes did we think he was going to bring to the team? Sure, he's younger and brought a lot of good lip service, but in the end, he's a product of the same system that was informally ranked 26th in the league last year.

So, let's assume that the scheme remains the same, and there is little change in the coaching, either. The cook was fired and replaced with the apprentice cook. That leaves one place left to improve from last year: the players.

What we saw on final cutdown day was a concerted effort to stock the roster with special teams players, at the cost of quality players who could line up on the other 80 plays a game on offense or defense. The cutting of Anthony Smith, who played in a 3-4 and brought some needed experience to the regular defense, was made in order to keep both the injured Aaron Rouse (which I tend to believe was a loyalty move over a smart move), Jarrett Bush, and the newly-acquired Derrick Martin. Martin and Bush were kept almost exclusively as special teams players, and thus far, their play on the field with the regular defense has resulted in some disastrous plays.

Martin gave up a huge touchdown in the first game against the Vikings, and Bush gave up a huge TD last week against the Bucs. Both were critical scores in critical games, and the worst part is they looked completely lost on those plays.

Rouse ended up being cut, and in addition to the futile effort to bring back Smith, the Packers signed Matt Giordano, who has struggled to get up to speed and was one of the key goats on Clifton Smith's 83-yard kick return last week...on special teams.

On offense, the Packers went with an jaw-dropping move to keep three fullbacks and only three halfbacks, sending promising project Tyrell Sutton packing for the Panthers. Most of us thought either John Kuhn or Korey Hall would be the ones leaving to make room for both Sutton and Quinn Johnson, but I think the Packers kept all three for one reason: they wanted Kuhn and Hall to play special teams.

Once again, this was at the cost of players who would be able to play down-in and down-out, and the fact that the Packers kept an injured Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn (another loyalty move, if you ask me) led directly to the Packers having to sign Ahman Green off the street this year.

Meanwhile, in case you didn't notice, Tyrell Sutton is not only a backup running back for the Panthers, he actually filled in for them last week at fullback. “He's a guy that works hard and knew what he was doing,” Panthers coach John Fox said. “He looked to be dependable and reliable. I'm not saying he would ideally be our every-down fullback. I'm saying he was adequate [Sunday].”

The Packers decided to take a risk this season by stacking their roster with special teams players, and every one of those ST players who is a liability or a luxury on offense or defense weakened those squads by taking a spot from a player who could be contributing there.

And the worst part of it? The special teams have been worse this season than last year. According to FootballOutsiders, the Packers special teams rank a solid 32nd out of 32 teams so far this year, down from their previous end-of-the-season rank of 20th.

So, what good has it been to stock our team with special teams players? In retrospect, it seems like a gambit gone wrong. However, we have to admit when things are going wrong, we complain that the coaches aren't doing enough to address it. Here, McCarthy and Thompson attempted to remedy the special teams problems by keeping players on the roster specifically for non-starting purposes. In a way, you have to give them some acknowledgment for trying.

But that is where it stops, unfortunately. Not only has the special teams declined, but the regular offense and defense were left without some needed lethal bullets in the gun. Some good project players were left off the roster, and one, Jamon Meredith, was claimed by the Buffalo Bills to be ruined for good.

McCarthy and Thompson have to start believing they are snakebit right now...it seems nearly any roster move they make is blowing up in their face. Certainly, when you look at the injuries on the Packer roster, many of them are special teamers instead of starters.. Wil Blackmon, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Brett Swain, Derrick Martin, Korey Hall, and Brandon Chillar are all guys who play special teams, and that impacts the effectiveness, too.

But, when you value your backups over your potential starters and quality backups, you set yourself up for failure, especially in a season like this. Hard lesson to be learned.

Trickle-Up Accountability

When the Packers lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the knee-jerk reaction was swift and loud: fire McCarthy and Thompson. Now.

Give a Packer fan (or writer) time to think about it and calm down, and you sometimes see the vitriol soften. You are now seeing more and more fans predicting that McCarthy will survive the season and get another chance next year.

I'm not so sure.

Mind you, I'm not getting on any high horse and calling for anyone's head. I've been a Thompson Critic since 2005 and not once have I ever called for him to fired, including this year. That's not something I think is worth really calling for right now. It takes a truly terrible and dysfunctional team to make that kind of change mid-season, because who the heck are you going to get to run the team in the interim? It sure isn't going to be Mike Holmgren or Bill Cowher.

I've also tried to give McCarthy every benefit of the doubt since the day after he was hired. I say that, because I was adamantly against him during the interview process. Why would you bring in the guy who was the QB coach when Favre threw the most interceptions of his career? If he can't hold accountable the one guy he's responsible for, what is he going to do with an entire team?

And I have given MM positive props from his first season through 2007. But last year, we saw the beginnings of a more passive, excuse-making McCarthy while our favorite team free-fell from 13-3 to a 10-14 record since.

The point many people make is that Ted Thompson is going to give McCarthy one more chance to show what he can do. Perhaps they think that Ted himself may realize that MM is working with NFL-E talent and stumblebums along the offensive line, and that an upgrade in talent will get the ship back on track.

However, the accountability train is a slippery slope. I'm not petitioning for McCarthy to go. But, I sure understand how it is becoming more and more of a likelihood as each week goes by, and the choice may no longer fall to Thompson.

Accountability, whether it be football, business, or any hierarchical structure, trickles up. The immediate supervisor has the responsibility to hold those under him accountable. If that supervisor fails to do so, you go up another level and the onus falls on the supervisor's supervisor to make everyone under him accountable.

And so it goes with the Packers. The players are held accountable by the coaching staff. The coaching staff is held accountable by the head coach. The head coach is held accountable by the GM. The GM is held accountable by the team president, who is in turn held accountable by the Executive Committee.

In a nutshell, if McCarthy doesn't clean up his house, it's up to Thompson to do it. And Mark Murphy is the one who will be supervising how well Thompson handles it.

Murphy offered some token support for both McCarthy and Thompson earlier this week.

“I still have confidence in Ted. Obviously for me, I work through Ted, and he and I are always in touch with each other, and I have a lot of confidence in Ted.”

“You’ll have to talk to Ted, but my sense is that he does have confidence (in McCarthy) but (is) disappointed in where we are right now. We’re all hoping that we can make the changes that are needed to get us to where we want to be at the end of the season.”

Murphy wisely and correctly dismisses any notion of a mid-season firing, but certainly spells out how the rest of the season is going to dictate how things go for McCarthy. In other words, if this team finishes 6-10 for the second season in a row, you get a strong feeling that McCarthy will not be here.

Note that while Murphy comes out and says that HE has confidence in Thompson, he never speaks towards his own confidence towards McCarthy. Not only does this establish that he is taking a "no comment" when it deals with how he feels about MM, it also shows those levels of supervision. It is Thompson's job to evaluate McCarthy.

However, last year, the Packers fell to 4-4 and proceeded to lose 6 of their last 8 games. When you consider the Offensive Line Shuffle continuing and the injuries beginning to mount, it isn't a far cry after looking at the rest of the schedule to think such a losing record this season is very realistic.

And, in the end, it may be that original reservation I had about McCarthy before he was even fired that will do him in. Despite the glaring problems along the offensive line, McCarthy doesn't hold his assistants accountable for it. “Our problems, to me, aren’t teaching and scheme," said McCarthy, placing the problems again on fundamental errors by the players.

How you cannot hold James Campen at least in part responsible for not developing many of these players to at least a competent level is beyond me. And the problem is that if Campen is maximizing their talent, it sure puts that spotlight back on the guy who is supposed to be putting the talent there to begin with...Ted Thompson.

So, the conundrum begins for Thompson. Perhaps he wants to be attached at the hip with his hand-picked head coach and to give him every opportunity to continue. But, he also has to realize that as McCarthy fails to hold his players and assistants accountable, the onus falls back onto Ted.

Thompson isn't exactly revered for his deft handling of public controversy, and this has all the makings of a major brouhaha. As players continue to not get benched for undisciplined play, and as the assistants continue to get a free pass, McCarthy continues to play the weak card of "pad level, fundamental errors, and gap control"...all subjective, vague problems that are nearly as hard to define as they are to actually fix.

So, it will fall to Thompson to make McCarthy be accountable. According to Greg Bedard over at JSOnline, there is already some cracks in the armor holding those two together. But the critical pressure may come from above.

Mark Murphy, quite honestly, has been pretty quiet as far as Packer Presidents go. His only major public showing was the $20 million contract he offered Brett Favre to remain retired, a move he later mentioned as being "poorly-timed". While I've spoken to Murphy on the phone and he seems like a guy trying hard to following in Bob Harlan's big footsteps, he is not an established entity in the eyes of the fans and those with the power to supplant an ineffective leader.

And, let's face it. This has been an emotional couple of years. We've gone from the emotional high of a 13-3 record and playoff run only two seasons ago, to the tearing apart of Packer fans over the Favre Divorce, to the disappointment of both the 2008 and the 2009 season after having such high expectations to start both years.

If accountability doesn't start with McCarthy, it's going to keep going over his head with every loss the Packers have the rest of the way. Chances are very high that if the Packers miss the playoffs, Ted Thompson is going to be given a choice to either fire McCarthy or join him on the unemployment line.

Furthermore, if Murphy doesn't make such a demad if this season is repeat of the last, such an ultimatum may be placed on him. Either he may be told to fire the Thompson/McCarthy tandem, or he can join them, too.

There are a lot of folks saying the whole season is riding on this next game against the Cowboys. I don't like that thought, if for no other reason, I see little optimism of winning the game, and it seems foolish to make that your do-or-die game. I think you are better off waiting until the 49er game, which would really be one of the few games we've played this season where the opposition is not clearly inferior or superior to the Packers.

My unscientific predictions as to the chances of each of these folks before they get sacked:

10-6: Both Thompson and McCarthy keep their jobs.

9-7: Both Thompson and McCarthy keep their jobs.

8-8: Thompson may consider firing McCarthy, but will not have pressure from above to do it.

7-9: Murphy will pressure Thompson to make a change at HC, and I think Thompson would do it.

6-10: Thompson will have an ultimatum to change or leave with MM.

5-11: Murphy will be strongly pressured to remove both TT and MM.

4-12: Murphy will have an ultimatum to remove both TT and MM or join them on the way out.

My intent isn't to try and show some sort of iron-clad prediction as to how I think things will go down, but to show that as the losses mount, how the accountability rises up the ranks, leaving those near the bottom out of control of the final decision.

So, for those folks saying that barring a complete meltdown that McCarthy's job is safe, I would say we better sit and watch the next couple of games. If the Packers are 4-6 heading into Thanksgiving, McCarthy will need to run the table to assure himself of a job in Green Bay next year. And neither he nor Thompson may have a choice in the matter.